Cafeoutdoors.com: Triple Crown this weekend?

As some of you know, I've gotten to know some thoroughbred owners, trainers and jockeys.....so take this with a grain of salt

I bet against AP at the Derby
I bet against AP at the Preakness
and I really see no reason to bet for him at the Belmont

It is a mile and half race-- most races theses days are 6 furlongs (3/4 mile) and most horses are bred for this distance.
Ok,high dollar stakes races will be milers if necessary and even 1 1/8 miles but a 1 1/2 mile race is pushing the envelope and as stated in the article,the amount of time for recovery from the Preakness is minimal.

I was reading the analysis of a fella that has more years betting on horses than most of us have been above dirt. His scenario is that AP needs to make a move early and burn the other horses to the nub and hope he has enough to hang on.

Frosted and Materiality are classic stalkers and if they can stay close and not burn out---well, there will be no Triple Crown

Note: Materiality ran a very fast last quarter at the Derby and was closing. Frosted's last quarter in the Derby was only slightly slower than Materiality's.
And I have to admit, AP was impressive going wide at the Derby--- that takes a lot out of a horse.

Frosted's sire (Tapit) has produced a good number of horses that were good at 1 1/8.

I have friends that have horses out of the same line as Frosted and admit a bias in that direction. One of their new babies is named Tap's Big Shot (out of the Tapit Line).

They were disappointed at his Derby run and some think it was 'jockey' error as much as anything.
They may or may not be right.....

but if I was betting and got good odds.....

Frosted,Materiality and AP in a Trifecta Box

and in any combination of these 3 in a Trifecta Wheel.

You should know the last bet I made on a horse, I split $10 bucks across the board and came up with zilch when the horse ran 4th

As always YMMV

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