I'd say it is 75/25 that he isn't signed by Spring Training. If he holds to his word, it is a 50/50 proposition that the Cards can sign him in free agency, next off-season.
Forget all the BS and just look at this, as if you owned the Cardinals and had to make the call. First, it would be idiocy, at an unspeakable level to be on the hook for him or anyone at $28-$30 mil a year for ages 38+. Second, he is worth more to the Cards than anyone else. His established roots in the community, his history here and his overall marketing potential have the most value to the Cardinals. Why bid against yourself and overpay? If he doesn't sign, you will have a 32 year-old superstar on the open market. How much will he get? Will anyone offer him more than 6 or 7 years, at the big dollars? I would bet not.
If you can't sign him for 6-8 years, at a reasonable price tag ($27 - $30 mil per year avg.), let him play out his option. Remember, he runs a risk as well. A serious injury, lower production numbers, a lingering injury that lingers more (existing foot issue, existing elbow issue, etc...). If he appears to be in the initial stages of the backside of his career (realistically, he will be), no team is going to give him anywhere close to $30 mil for even 6 years.
Not signing Albert by Spring Training is not all bad. It may be that letting him become a free agent gives the Cardinals the best chance of signing him long term, at a reasonable price. It is entirely possible that he and his agent have over-played their hand.
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"Hunts are best measured by the endurance of the memories they produce..."
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