Good analysis Bill. While lacking the depth of knowledge duko offered up, it was a decent effort nonetheless...

I've heard A.P. has put on 9-10 lbs. since the Preakness and is looking very good in training. Of course looking good in training means absolutely nothing, as they enter the last 1/2 mile of that long race. But all indications are Baffert has learned from his previous defeats and his jockey, Espinoza, will give him a good ride. Espinoza has a few big race criticisms on his resume as well.

And let's not forget about the kind of money that is at stake here. If A.P. were to win, he becomes a horse that will generate obscene amounts of breeding revenue. When that kind of money is at stake, there are no limits to what will be done to gain an advantage.

Every analysis I've read says he needs to get out front and hold off the challengers. If it requires a kick at the end, he has no chance. That's were the fresher horses have an a advantage.