sptsman
member
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 6199
Loc: Missouri
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I see quite a few "experts" predicting it will finally happen. Can American Pharoah pull this off or will he be too tapped from the Derby and Preakness?
I always wondered how much validity there was to the "excuse" that horses that hadn't run the Derby & Preakness were at such a huge advantage. But after reading this article and a few others, it does seem to be a legitimate reason. Check out the article and them make your prediction Science says...
I'm still predicting a win and our first Triple Crown winner in a looong time. Betting with my heart and not my head!! 
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"Hunts are best measured by the endurance of the memories they produce..."
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duko™
member
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 3442
Loc: east mo
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This is what Materiality is gonna look like after A.P. gets done putting the whoop ass on him.
--->  <-----
duko
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wuchang
spiritual advisor and gatekeeper to the Spirit World
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 5228
Loc: uphill
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As some of you know, I've gotten to know some thoroughbred owners, trainers and jockeys.....so take this with a grain of salt
I bet against AP at the Derby
I bet against AP at the Preakness
and I really see no reason to bet for him at the Belmont
It is a mile and half race-- most races theses days are 6 furlongs (3/4 mile) and most horses are bred for this distance.
Ok,high dollar stakes races will be milers if necessary and even 1 1/8 miles but a 1 1/2 mile race is pushing the envelope and as stated in the article,the amount of time for recovery from the Preakness is minimal.
I was reading the analysis of a fella that has more years betting on horses than most of us have been above dirt. His scenario is that AP needs to make a move early and burn the other horses to the nub and hope he has enough to hang on.
Frosted and Materiality are classic stalkers and if they can stay close and not burn out---well, there will be no Triple Crown
Note: Materiality ran a very fast last quarter at the Derby and was closing. Frosted's last quarter in the Derby was only slightly slower than Materiality's.
And I have to admit, AP was impressive going wide at the Derby--- that takes a lot out of a horse.
Frosted's sire (Tapit) has produced a good number of horses that were good at 1 1/8.
I have friends that have horses out of the same line as Frosted and admit a bias in that direction. One of their new babies is named Tap's Big Shot (out of the Tapit Line).
They were disappointed at his Derby run and some think it was 'jockey' error as much as anything.
They may or may not be right.....
but if I was betting and got good odds.....
Frosted,Materiality and AP in a Trifecta Box
and in any combination of these 3 in a Trifecta Wheel.
You should know the last bet I made on a horse, I split $10 bucks across the board and came up with zilch when the horse ran 4th
As always YMMV
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sptsman
member
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 6199
Loc: Missouri
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Good analysis Bill. While lacking the depth of knowledge duko offered up, it was a decent effort nonetheless...
I've heard A.P. has put on 9-10 lbs. since the Preakness and is looking very good in training. Of course looking good in training means absolutely nothing, as they enter the last 1/2 mile of that long race. But all indications are Baffert has learned from his previous defeats and his jockey, Espinoza, will give him a good ride. Espinoza has a few big race criticisms on his resume as well.
And let's not forget about the kind of money that is at stake here. If A.P. were to win, he becomes a horse that will generate obscene amounts of breeding revenue. When that kind of money is at stake, there are no limits to what will be done to gain an advantage. 
Every analysis I've read says he needs to get out front and hold off the challengers. If it requires a kick at the end, he has no chance. That's were the fresher horses have an a advantage.
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"Hunts are best measured by the endurance of the memories they produce..."
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wuchang
spiritual advisor and gatekeeper to the Spirit World
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 5228
Loc: uphill
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KeenIce in the TRifecta Box????????????
Keenforking Ice 20-1 to win in the forking Trifecta Box???????
Where the fork was Materiality?
Easy come
easy go  
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wuchang
spiritual advisor and gatekeeper to the Spirit World
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 5228
Loc: uphill
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and to make things worse.....I forgot to hedge the odds and bet AP to show
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hucklburry
member
Reged: 12/15/05
Posts: 948
Loc: Daniel Boone's Neighborhood
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If Wu told ya to never bet on a dead horse, I think his advice would be wrong.
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wuchang
spiritual advisor and gatekeeper to the Spirit World
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 5228
Loc: uphill
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Quote:
hucklburry said:
If Wu told ya to never bet on a dead horse, I think his advice would be wrong.
I seldom bet on horses.....but when I do
The track wins--
stay solvent my friends
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sptsman
member
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 6199
Loc: Missouri
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Welp, that was awesome to see. He did what he needed to do and now gets to live like a king and have sex for a living, the rest of his life...
I did see where his owners are talking about racing him some more. I can't imagine anyone is that stupid but I guess you never know... I would hate to see it happen but a little part of you would have to snicker if he ran a race, got injured and had to be put down... I'm sure the folks that paid $30 million for his breeding rights will have something to say about additional races...
Last summer I had the opportunity to spend part of a day at a premier breeding farm in Lexington, KY. Lane's End A few of us got a personal tour of the facility and were shown some multi-million dollar stallions. I also got a brief lesson in the business end of breeding these beasts. When you understand the stud fees and the math, you quickly understand why it would be idiotic to run this horse in even one more race...
I guess when you already have tens or hundreds of millions, taking a risk like that is not so risky. But I still wager this horse will not run again. Common sense will prevail...
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"Hunts are best measured by the endurance of the memories they produce..."
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IIFID
Bond....Timmy Bond
Reged: 12/15/05
Posts: 8068
Loc: Nipawin, Saskatchewan
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Wu said to Bubba, 'I put $20 on a horse last week and he came in at twenty five to one.'
'Wow Wu! you must be loaded', said Bubba.
'Not really' said Wu, 'The rest of the field came in at twelve thirty.'
 
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Thought for the day; “It’s impossible to think outside of the box when all you do is think about getting inside of the box.”
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IIFID
Bond....Timmy Bond
Reged: 12/15/05
Posts: 8068
Loc: Nipawin, Saskatchewan
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What's the difference between praying in church and at the track?
At the track you really mean it!
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Thought for the day; “It’s impossible to think outside of the box when all you do is think about getting inside of the box.”
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IIFID
Bond....Timmy Bond
Reged: 12/15/05
Posts: 8068
Loc: Nipawin, Saskatchewan
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Duko bet on a horse called Bukkake.
It was a 50/1 shot.
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Thought for the day; “It’s impossible to think outside of the box when all you do is think about getting inside of the box.”
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wuchang
spiritual advisor and gatekeeper to the Spirit World
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 5228
Loc: uphill
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Andy
Cool link--
Molly and I have been wanting to make a road trip to that area
and
At the risk of Timmy channeling his inner Henny Youngman and getting stuck in character
Timmy just flew in from New York
and boy his arms are tired
Where is Swampfox when we need him??
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IIFID
Bond....Timmy Bond
Reged: 12/15/05
Posts: 8068
Loc: Nipawin, Saskatchewan
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There were no attempts to hijack or derail this thread and that is a requirement in this pisshole. I was just trying to do my part. 
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Thought for the day; “It’s impossible to think outside of the box when all you do is think about getting inside of the box.”
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wuchang
spiritual advisor and gatekeeper to the Spirit World
Reged: 12/14/05
Posts: 5228
Loc: uphill
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Quote:
IIFID said:
There were no attempts to hijack or derail this thread and that is a requirement in this pisshole. I was just trying to do my part.
and by the way
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